Modeling the spread of bird flu and predicting outbreak diversity
Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is an epidemic caused by H5N1 virus that primarily affects birds like chickens,
wild water birds, etc. On rare occasions, these can infect other species including pigs and humans. In the span of less than a year, the
lethal strain of bird flu is spreading very fast across the globe mainly in South East Asia, parts of Central Asia, Africa and Europe.
In order to study the patterns of spread of epidemic, we made an investigation of outbreaks of the epidemic in one week, that is from
February 13–18, 2006, when the deadly virus surfaced in India.We have designed a statistical transmission model of bird flu taking
into account the factors that affect the epidemic transmission such as source of infection, social and natural factors and various
control measures are suggested.
V. Sree Hari Rao, Senior Member, IEEE and
Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay,
Published in: 2012